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Analysts: Obama could turn Virginia blue
Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1964. It's a state Republicans have learned they can count on to go red.But this year's election could change that, according to an assortment of political analysts who call Virginia home.
Madeleine Albright, former secretary of state who lives near Hillsboro, said she has seen a new level of interest from voters all around the state.
"There is such an excitement among Virginians, which is really historic," she said. "There really is a sense that Virginia could make a difference, and I think when a state is taken for granted as it has been by one party for a long time, it really makes a big difference."
Presidential polls show the race in Virginia is neck and neck, with the most recent polling data showing a slight lead for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama over his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain.
"We call it a tossup right now," said Dan Keyserling with the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "The chances of [Virginia] going Democratic depend on what happens in the next few weeks and whether Barack Obama can make up the gap of undecided voters. He appears closer to taking Virginia than any Democrat has in a long time."
For now, Virginia might be too close to call, but one thing is for sure -- in order to win the state, Obama needs to win in Northern Virginia.
The region's changing demographics -- particularly its influx of new voters -- and sheer size make it a portion of the state any candidate hoping to carry Virginia cannot overlook. This election year, Keyserling predicts, Northern Virginia's importance will be greater than ever.
"The growth in Northern Virginia brings huge numbers of young, more progressive voters to the state," he said. "These are people who vote. They are between 28 and 50, young professionals, the undecided of which would help Barack Obama."
Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist who serves as a political contributor for CNN, said he thinks Obama has done enough to clinch a win in the state.
"I think Obama is the right candidate in the right time," said Begala, a McLean resident. "The state is changing, and if you look at Governor Warner, who is very likely to win his Senate race; Governor Kaine, who is doing a good job in tough times; and [Sen.] Jim Webb, there is a breed of Democrat who is change-oriented, future-focused and not terribly ideological who does very well in Virginia. Obama is that style of Democrat."
Begala predicted that both Fairfax County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, and Loudoun, which has gone to the Republicans every presidential election since 1964, will go for Obama this November.
Keyserling agreed on Fairfax but said he could not make a prediction for Loudoun County.
"Loudoun is tough because the dynamic of Loudoun has changed more than the dynamic of Fairfax over the last four years," he said. "I hesitate to make predictions about which way it will go, but it will be important to look at those counties as indicators of the new political dynamic of the state."
Craig Brians, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said political pundits love making predictions, but the truth is no one can really know what the outcome of the election will be until it's over.
As for Virginia going Democratic, Brians said he will wait and see, although he did acknowledge that the Obama campaign is organized in the state at a level not typical of a Democratic candidate.
"The Obama camp has spent five times as much money in Virgina as McCain, and a lot of it has been spent on paying people. We've never had a presidential candidate hire people to register voters to motivate them so tremendously well."
McLean resident Kathleen Murphy, a consultant and former aide to former Democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Wilson, said some of McCain's choices have hurt his campaign.
"Obama demonstrated he recognized clearly what would help him win as a candidate and that is his choice of Biden," she said. "I think McCain was irresponsible in his very risky and very poor choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate. She's used to being a candidate in pageants, so she can look at you and wink, but she lacks the underlying knowledge of what it takes to be vice president."
Bruce Smart, of Upperville, a Republican who served as undersecretary of commerce for Ronald Reagan, said he is one of those who have been won over by the Obama-Biden ticket.
"For me, it's a very important election," he said. "I'm feeling nervous it is so close because to me it is so clear that Obama and Biden are a stronger pair than McCain and Palin, and I'm a Republican."
Contact the reporter at ecoe@timespapers.com
WHY ISNT THE PRESS ALL OVER THIS?????
Palin has close ties to the some pretty interesting people in Wasilla.
Google: Steve Stoll and Palin.
Extreme? Anti-American? You must judge for yourself.
DO WE REALLY KNOW SARAH?
PLEASE do your own research.
Do your homework.
This Woman Could Become President.
Posted by cawren
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I think the people who are born in Virginia will vote for McCain and the ones who moved here to live will vote Obama. Virginia is a conservative state at heart and most Virginians see through Obama's B.S. to his core. Natural born Virginians will weigh both candidates’ abilities in all areas not just a few. I agree McCain is lacking on the economy but he makes up for it in his foreign affairs savvy. I’m more concerned about Russia, N. Korea, Iran, and other terrorist countries than our economy (which will bounce back).
Posted by dpunty
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cawren you are funny. Why isn't the press all over Mr. Obama's ties to a 60's terrorist or how much he benefitted from Fannie Mae and Freddie or how his law firm and his wife's sued banks that didn't make bad loans to people who couldn't pay? This man could be president you know!
Posted by observer
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Why is it that the people who claim to be born in Virginia and say that they're conservative by birth right support a Republican who claims to be a maverick to the dismay of the real Maverick's by birth right, who has been an enabler to the most catastrophic administration in the history of our country. I commend McCain for his service back in the 60's and 70's. But this is 2008! What the heck have we regressed to. One only needs to do a google search and find out some alarming things.
First of all, terrorism will always ebb and flow no matter how many wars our Government fabricates. Second, we saw the advent of the dot com boom, we can now lead a smart green.com boom! Not talking points crap you see on the networks, there is no such thing as clean burning coal, drilling holes in the earth is short changing our future for the wealth of a few oil men. Gang crimes have risen drastically in all of our inner cities and even in the rural and suburban areas. Education systems are only kept current in high income areas. Bush has succeeded in stiking fear into the hearts of Nascar Joe Six Pack America. But because this part of society takes a very boorish outlook on life they fear things that are very shortsighted in scope. Get over yourselves Loudoun County! Obama isn't going to take your guns away, you can still drive your stupid looking SUV's with the big rims, and you can still live in your McMansions with Stone fronts and vinyl siding in the back yards of what used to be beautiful land, sold by the farmers who could no longer afford to pay taxes imposed by greedy zoning laws passed by greedy county officials. SO don't cry when Obama wins the election, but don't be shocked when you find out he's not an Arab...Get a grip Western Loudoun, get a grip.
Posted by wrxman
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Wrxman, you make me laugh (in a good way). I'm glad you think Obama will make a good President but you are wrong. He has no moral core and is riding high on his popularity. Some of us who claim to be born in Virginia are in fact born in Virginia. My ancestors came in 1725 to settle in Hillsboro and we have populated Loudoun County ever since. Good luck to you if Obama wins and starts to "spread the wealth". I do agree with you that our education system is lacking. I had a fantastic education in Loudoun from 1972 - 1984, I not sure what has happened. Too many liberals in the Teacher's Union I suppose. And no, just because I was born in Leesburg and raised in Ashburn, I don’t cling to my guns and religion! LOL!!!
Posted by dpunty
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